American Samizdat

Wednesday, February 18, 2004. *
Two good article pairs from the Asia Times:

Pepe Escobar:
The Roving Eye: Iraq and al-Qaeda
 
Even before the Iraq War, the administration went to great lengths to try to tie al-Qaeda with Iraq, and as the WMD justification for the war dies its proper death, the administration continues to try to promote an al-Qaeda/Iraq connection as perhaps its only remaining justification that the American public will buy into. Mysterious CD-ROMs (which al-Qaeda does not use) and suicide bombings are attributed as al-Qaeda footprints, but al-Qaeda no longer uses CD-ROMs to communicate, and suicide bombings fit quite well into the Shi'ite tradition of martyrdom. The suggestion of course is that the Iraqis themselves would not by themselves be conducting such an extensive campaign of violence; that they would only do so with outside aggitation, and that means al-Qaeda.

Yet credible estimates of Iraqi deaths and severe injuries from the war run as high as several hundred thousand, and as Escobar points out:

This means that many Iraqis now know that in the name of their "liberation", the Americans have killed or maimed 200,000 people. When something like this happens, you don't need any help from al-Qaeda to fuel your anger.
But is there really even an al-Qaeda acting as a directing force to the terrorism in Iraq and elsewhere around the globe, or has al-Qaeda merely become a myth and a rallying point for various local terrorist efforts? French Ministry of Defense expert Alain Chouet believes the latter to be the case, and further believes that the Bush administration's effort to highlight al-Qaeda as a key force in the world (and Iraqi) terrorism is a double-edged sword. Just as it allows the administration to continue to sell its "War on Terrorism" to the American people, so too does it allow small groups of local dissidents to identify with a greater cause, that of curbing and rolling back what is viewed as American imperialism.

As Pepe Escobar concludes:

As for a weakened, disabled al-Qaeda, it is definitely voting Bush next November. Al-Qaeda wants the Iraq occupation to be prolonged, with or without a puppet government: there could not be a better advertisement for rallying Muslims against the arrogance of the West.
Al-Qaeda likely has little if any capability left in the United States to carry out another 9/11 scale attack. But even a small-scale attack in a major city before the election "would be like help from above for the Bushites", and a Bush re-election is the exact outcome needed to advance the myth of al-Qaeda.

David Isenberg:
The Costs of Empire
 
"Imperial overstretch", first coined in 1987 by Paul Kennedy and repeated by him 10 years later:
"The United States now runs the risk, so familiar to historians of the rise and fall of Great Powers, of what might be called 'imperial overstretch': that is to say, decision-makers in Washington must face the awkward and enduring fact that the total of the United States's global interests and obligations is nowadays far too large for the country to be able to defend them all simultaneously."
Imperial has since been replaced by "empire" in the halls of the administration, but the "overstretch" part remains; empires are very expensive to maintain:

But while empire in all its imperial, multicolored, geopolitical hues may be an alluring sight, there is one thing to keep in mind. The process of creating and maintaining an empire, like making sausage or passing congressional legislation, is not a pretty process. In fact, it is costly, very costly, in terms of lives, money and liberty. It requires a large military establishment, which can consume a substantial, if not disproportionate amount of the national treasury. And it requires stationing and deploying forces around the world.
David Isenberg looks a the plans being made and executed in the name of the New American Empire. The question isn't really whether we want one however, but rather whether we can even afford one if we do.
posted by Mischa Peyton at 2:02 PM
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