The Valerie Plame affair is a test of the left hypothesis that Karl Rove is the administration's center of gravity. From a political perspective, if Rove truly is Bush's brain, and he truly is responsible for the leaks from the White House, then Bush's culpability in the scandal is irrelevant. Take Rove out of the picture, and Bush--much of the administration, in fact--simply will not perform politically like they have for the last 35 months. Take Rove out of the picture, and Bush will find 2004 much more difficult.
Open Source Politics has a good round-up of the day's events.
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